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1. Los Angeles Clippers – Blake Griffin (Oklahoma)
Is there anyone who wouldn’t be surprised if the Clips opted for Ricky Rubio? Me neither. Regardless, Coach/GM Mike Dunleavy came out in early May and confirmed that the team were taking Blake, without exception. This poses a logjam problem for the club, who will have Camby, Kaman, Randolph, Jordan, & Griffin on the books heading into next season. Expect the Clips to try and dump Marcus and Zach if at all possible- with possible being the operative word when referring to Zach Randolph.
2. Memphis Grizzlies – Ricky Rubio (FC Barcelona/Spain)
This might be the most hated team among NBA agents. For the past two weeks, we’ve watched as scores of advisors have requested their clients to back out of workouts with the club, presumably given that the Grizzlies have already made up their minds with who they’ll be taking. This is an awkward place for them to be picking- the team clearly needs to add depth, and a legit low-post scorer. While Rubio is the best available player, I’m not so sure the Griz need him, with Conley heading into his 3rd season and showing signs of life. Traditional wisdom suggests draft the best piece on the table and work a deal out to see if there’s something further to gain. If GM Chris Wallace is smart, he’ll hold onto Ricky and see if he can grab a decent low-post scorer in exchange. Don’t rule out the Mavericks or Knicks though. Jason Kidd is a free agent, and a sign-and-trade can be worked out here to benefit both teams.
3. Oklahoma City – James Harden (Arizona St.)
I had a chance to watch a few of his games this past NCAA season, and came away impressed with his skill set. He’s a poor man’s Brandon Roy, with that same silky style and deceptive speed. He’s a true Shooting Guard, and he’ll further bolster a young lineup of talent including Russel Westbrook, Kevin Durant, and Jeff Green. GM Sam Presti may opt to go big here with Jordan Hill still available, but early reports suggest the Thunder have already promised Harden he’s a lock to be drafted at #3. A smart move, and another piece to the puzzle for a team on the rise.
4. Sacramento Kings – Stephen Curry (Davidson)
Early reports this offseason suggested Kings GM Geoff Petrie and owners Gavin & Joe Maloff were head-over-heels in love with Ricky Rubio. But it seems those stories have soured in the last ten days, with disputing reports regarding Rubio’s latest trip to the capitol city. The Kings are clearly in a rebuilding phase, and incoming coach Paul Westphal will want to start off his tenure with a smart selection. Curry comes from a basketball pedigree, and proved over the course of two sensational seasons that he can flat out score. Do they take him at 4 expecting he can transition into a pure point guard? Or do they opt for a more traditional 1 in the form of UCLA’s Jrue Holiday or Brandon Jennings. My expectation is that the Kings will take Curry and see if they can mold him into more of a play maker to complement Kevin Martin and last season’s pick Jason Thompson.
5. Minnesota Timberwolves – Brandon Jennings (Italy/USA)
This pick used to belong to the Wizards, but they clearly wanted no business with a lottery pick this season, given the cash they have promised to Arenas, Butler & Jamison. Smart move by Saunders to grab Mike Miller and Randy Foye, two proven players that will add greater depth to the rotation. For the Wolves and incoming GM David Kahn, a brazen move but a smart one. The Wolves are not going to become a sensation overnight, and they need to begin by cleaning house and adding promising talent. Jennings is a traditional PG who spent the last season toiling in Italy’s professional league. After a slow start, he hit his stride, and showed a versatile game that is reminiscent of Chris Paul circa Wake Forest. Jennings would instantly become the team’s starting one, and would stabilize the back court for whomever is manning the ship next season. Bear in mind, the Wolves did this trade so they could put this pick and the #6 and #18 (which they own) together to jump into the top 3 to grab Ricky Rubio. Memphis might listen to such phone calls…
6. Minnesota Timberwolves – Tyreke Evans (Memphis)
Admittedly, there are a number of better players on the board still (Hill, Thabeet) but neither of those players address the key needs for the Wolves, namely wing scoring. After shipping out McCants, Foye, Miller, and sending OJ Mayo to the Griz, the Wolves will take a long look at Memphis’ Evans, who at 6’6 is a traditional 2 guard. They may even be tempted by the potential of USC one-and-done DeMar DeRozen, but I would expect that if the Wolves keep this, they’re locking in on Evans.
7. Golden State Warriors – Jordan Hill (Arizona)
It’s tough to gauge where the GSW stand, with mixed reports emanating daily from their camp. While Coach Don Nelson loves quick scoring guards, he’s also been one of the early supporters of skilled big-men (Nowitzki). Provided they can talk Monta Ellis off a cliff (who seriously has no business behaving like a bitch, MOPED ANYONE?) they’ll add another low-post threat in the versatile Hill, who is the best back-to-the-basket player on the board. At 6’10 he could pair upfront with Biedrins to form a solid tandem, with Turiaf, Randolph, and Wright waiting in the wings for support.
8. New York Knicks – Earl Clark (Louisville)
The biggest enigma of the draft belongs to the biggest enigma of the NBA. With Mike D’Antoni and Donnie Walsh now calling the shots, we can expect the Knicks to focus on picking up a piece that will fit into the high-octane system Mikey and the boys like to run. Clark has size (6’10) and athleticism to be a force for years to come. While he’s only shown flashes so far, and prefers the perimeter over the paint, The Knicks could certainly profit from a 3-shooting Power Forward in the Eastern Conference for years to come. Though they would like to move up to nab Rubio or Curry, they’ll take heart in grabbing Clark at 8, which I would suspect as a steal. They might also take a long look at UCLA’s Jrue Holiday, but ultimately opt for the enigmatic Clark.
9. Toronto Raptors – Hasheem Thabeet (UConn)
I would expect the Raps to try and move up to nab one of the guards on the board, but if not, they’ll take Thabeet and his 7’3 frame over the border and see what they can do with him. It’s no secret Chris Bosh wants to play on a contender, and the Raps are a team in transition. Thabeet will help on the boards and defensively, but he’s very raw on the offensive end, and has yet to develop much of a low-post game. At UConn, his scores were largely on put-backs, rebounds, and lobs. Though Bosh will handle the heavy lifting, he will need to improve his stamina and offensive skill set to make this team significantly better.
10. Milwaukee Bucks – DeMar DeRozen (USC)
Having just shipped off Richard Jefferson to the San Antonio Spurs, the Bucks will look to add wing-scoring to their ranks, and DeRozen is the most intriguing prospect on the board. An athletic freak, DeRozen will bring energy and aggression off the bench next season. With a healthy Andrew Bogut, Charlie Villanueva, a healthy Michael Redd, the improving development of Ramon Sessions, the continued growth of last year’s pick Jason Alexander, and DeRozen, this team could potentially contend for a playoff birth next year.
11. New Jersey Nets – Gerald Henderson (Duke)
This is where the draft starts to get ugly, and the quality really starts slipping off the table. Henderson is a good player, with a solid Duke background, but he’s not an outstanding scorer by any stretch. While he is a good shooter from distance, he will not beat anyone off the dribble in the L just yet. He will be a strong defender (a la Battier) but he will have to work to improve on both ends of the court. The Nets would be wise to grab him and see if they can send him to a title contender for spare parts.
12. Charlotte Bobcats – Tyler Hansbrough (UNC)
It makes so much symmetrical sense, this has to happen, RIGHT? Local product plays ball at Chapel Hill, joins NBA pro team in his backyard, has some Hoosier-esque moments with Larry Brown, smokes cigars with Michael Jordan, serves as health instructor for Sean May’s comeback. RIGHT? Anyhow, yes, this will happen, primarily because Larry Brown inherited some poor big men, and struck out royally with the drafting of Alexis Ajinca last year. Tyler is an average-at-best NBA player who will work his tail off but never truly impress.
13. Indiana Pacers – Jrue Holiday (UCLA)
This is a hard pick to forecast. The Pacers brass, for their part, have kept fairly quiet on the subject of where they may lean. Last year, the team scooped up Roy Hibbert and Brandon Rush, both excellent players for the long-term. With the 13th pick, it’s hard to ensure you’re grabbing a player who can immediately help the team. My expectation is that they’ll try to shop the pick and Mike Dunleavy Jr. for a low-post scorer to pair with Danny Granger, and if they fail, they’ll grab Holiday, the best available talent on the board, and see if they can jettison him to a team with bigs for sale (Zach Randolph?)
14. Phoenix Suns – Johnny Flynn (Syracuse)
They get somewhat screwed by the Pacers here, unless they swap picks with them. Sources are suggesting the Suns are actively trying to secure Holiday, who they anticipate as a natural successor to the Steve Nash throne. With rumors bandied about that Shaq and Amar’e Stoudamire are for sale, it may not be out of the question to assume the Suns would also consider putting former MVP Nash on the block in a sweeping transition summer. Provided they do that, the Suns could instantly move up the ranks and grab a Top 5 pick. But if they hold firm, they’ll have a young cadet for Nash to groom into his predecessor.
15. Detroit Pistons – Terrence Williams (Louisville)
If they’re actually keeping Hamilton, Prince, & Stuckey (which I think they will) then this pick might not be the best move for them. But, if they do elect to move that triumvirate in exchange for Rondo & Allen, this makes a ton of sense. Williams may well be a better overall player than Henderson, with a more complete offensive game and a strong athletic arsenal of moves. Scouts have already compared him to Andre Igoudala, and if that holds up, then the Pistons may luck out and have themselves a true steal at 15. Provided they keep Prince, Hamilton, & Stuckey, I’d expect them to make a play for BJ Mullins, but then again, Joe Dumars is known for the unconventional (see Darko Milicic).
16. Chicago Bulls – James Johnson (Wake Forest)
The Bulls have needed a legit 2-guard for YEARS now. I’ve watched them toil away with Ben Gordon, Kirk Hinrich, Thabo Sefolosha and Larry Hughes over the past three seasons, with mixed results. Since they cannot ensure Gordon returning next term, they’ll look to address that need with a scoring combo guard that can play some minutes at the 3/4 in smaller lineups. Johnson has excellent size, and is built in the same vein as Ron Artest. He doesn’t need touches to be effective, and is more than happy playing the Robin to Derrick Rose’s Batman role. While he lacks range from outside, he can take the ball to the cup with his size and absorb contact. Anyone willing to mix it up in the paint will be a welcome addition to an otherwise soft Bulls frontline featuring French sensation Joakim Noah and Tyrus ‘I’m just here for the checks’ Thomas.
17. Philadelphia 76ers – Ty Lawson (UNC)
There’s two ways this can play out: either the Sixers let Dalembert walk as a FA and grab Ohio’s BJ Mullins, or, they try and trade Andre Miller (while he still has some value) and grab Ty Lawson. I’d expect GM Ed Stefanski to keep Dalembert and package Miller for another piece that rounds out the rotation. Lawson has some incredible speed in the open court, and will form a deadly backcourt with running mate Andre Igoudala. Bigger issues for the Sixers will lie in the paint, but with a healthy Elton Brand (I tend to forget he’s a part of that team) and the recently acquired Jason Kapono, coupled with emerging stars Thaddeus Young, Mareese Speights, & Jason Smith, they will be laying the groundwork for a long and successful run in the East.
18. Minnesota Timberwolves – BJ Mullens (Ohio)
This is all incumbent upon the Wolves keeping this pick, along with their other three 1st round selections. Provided they do, they’ll add some much-needed big-man insurance in the form of Ohio sophomore Mullins, who rarely featured for the Buckeyes, but apparently oozes potential that’s hard to pass up. Should Mullins not be on the board, they’ll look at Gonzaga’s Austin Daye, though he might give Wolves fan’s flashbacks of one N’dudi Ebi (sorry).
19. Atlanta Hawks – Eric Maynor (VCU)
Ok, the Hawks have failed miserably at drafting point guards for the last five seasons. They skipped Chris Paul in favor of Marvin Williams, picked up Acie Law IV and Salim Stoudamire, who’ve collectively regressed to the point where they need Lorenzo Romar’s basketball camp in the worst way, and grabbed Mike Bibby from a cash-conscious Kings club a season ago. They need someone that can provide scoring and versatility off the bench, and insurance in case Bibby moves on to another club. Maynor is a better fit here than Jeff Teague, and he’ll be more than happy fighting for scraps in the second unit.
20. Utah Jazz – Austin Daye (Gonzaga)
This pick is based entirely on the health of Mehmet Okur and fickle nature of Carlos Boozer. Provided both are on the fence regarding their presence next season, the Jazz need to add bulk on the frontline, and Daye is the best available big on the board. He’s not ready to start, nor will he give the Jazz any sort of lift in the near future, but he can certainly give them insurance in case Boozer opts for greener pastures and Okur shows up in poor health. If they elect to go small, they could grab Jeff Teague, as insurance for the imminent departure of Deron Williams.
21. New Orleans Hornets – DeJuan Blair (Pittsburgh)
Let’s see, a 6’7 PF/C that’s offensively challenged and not ready to contribute on either end. Sounds like a CLASSIC Hornet pick. All kidding aside, they should really try and package this pick for immediate help, or they should stash this overseas, considering they tried to move Tyson Chandler for a bag of Lays Potato Chips at the deadline. At best, Blair could be Paul Millsap, at worst, Reggie Evans. Yikes.
22. Dallas Mavericks – Jeff Teague (Wake Forest)
An absolute steal, considering his skill-set and performance throughout his NCAA career. He’ll instantly slot into the back-up PG position, ahead of Barea, and give the Mavs the necessary depth they’ve lacked for a few seasons now. He makes trading Jason Kidd reasonable, and potentially Jason Terry expendable. He shows flashes of Monta Ellis and Louis Williams, mixed with Aaron Brooks. That’s a nasty combination, and I kid you not, this guy’s going to have a nice career in the L. Cuban makes the pick and enjoys the rewards for seasons to come.
23. Sacramento Kings – Sam Young (Pittsburgh)
He’ll give them another wing player, with the size and ability to defend the Brandon Roy/Kobe Bryant/Manu Ginobili/Carmelo Anthony’s of the Western Conference. Beyond that, he doesn’t have a defined offensive game, might be a tad undersized to be a traditional 3, and gives off the distinct impression of James Posey. All good, or bad, things I guess. My guess is the Kings grab him and develop him into the Doug Christie of this new generation of players. That, or, they go ahead and grab more PG insurance in the form of UCLA’s Darren Collison.
24. Portland Trailblazers – Darren Collison (UCLA)
Rumors have been swirling for weeks now that the Blazers have been active on the phones trying to make a play for a complete PG. They love Steve Blake, but prefer him in a backup role. They’re not entirely sold on Rodriguez, and would prefer to use Bayless as a combo guard in the vein of Monta Ellis. That being said, if they cannot move up, they’ll take Collison here with a wide grin. He’s got experience, having been to 3 consecutive Final Four’s under Ben Howland, and understands the pressure of running a franchise under the bright lights. Jrue Holiday will go higher, but Collison might have the better career in the long run.
25. Oklahoma City Thunder – Taj Gibson (USC)
If they’re smart, they’ll go in this direction. Gibson is a vastly underrated scorer and has good size to be a solid role player in the NBA. He gives the team another low-post scoring option, and will develop into a nice piece in the future. I had a chance to watch a lot of his games, and I can assure you that he is also a very good rebounder and shot-blocker. He’ll struggle on the block initially, but given a few years, he could develop his frame into that of Lamar Odom (minus the ball-handling skills) and make an impact for a rising club.
26. Chicago Bulls – Chase Budinger (Arizona)
They could elect to stash a player overseas, but I fully expect the Bulls to get Budinger and bring him into the fold right away. A sweet-shooting small forward with size and athleticism that can offer depth in case Deng goes down again, giving Salmons a breather, and another solid piece to an otherwise shaky foundation. The Bulls sorely lacked depth against the Celtics in the first-round of the playoffs. To be a continued presence, they’ll need to get deeper, and Budinger is a great pick for them this late in the first round.
27. Memphis Grizzlies – Marcus Thornton (LSU)
They don’t need him, so they might as well put this pick into an overseas project, but should they opt to have a player for next season, Thornton is the best available player on the board, though they might even be able to grab him in the second round. He has the potential to be the next Jason Kidd, or the next Rashad McCants. Either way, this is not a player that will directly affect the club’s bottom line in the near future.
28. Minnesota Timberwolves – Omri Casspi (Israel)
Again, entirely incumbent on their ability to keep this pick, my guess is the Wolves stash this one in Europe. Casspi is young (21), has excellent size (6’8) and strength (230) to be a legit player down the line in the vein of Matt Harpring. Instead of bringing him into a logjam of guards (remember, the team has to reintegrate Corey Brewer into the mix), they’re better off letting him develop into someone that can potentially make an impact in the future.
29. Los Angeles Lakers – Nick Calathes (Florida/Europe)
The defending champs will get nothing out of this pick for at least three years. They would have preferred to use it on Casspi, but if not, they’ll go with Calathes, who recently signed a pro contract to play in Greece alongside Josh Childress. I doubt he ever plays a game for the Lakers, but provided he has the fortitude to survive the wait, he may well be another guard off the bench that can help the post-Kobe Lakers grow into the Bynum-Gasol-Ariza squad of the future.
30. Cleveland Cavaliers – Wayne Ellington (UNC)
This pick has no merit for a team that had the best record in the regular season. Ellington will never see the light of day, and could well be this year’s version of Shannon Brown. A streaky shooter that’s better off in the development league. If the Cavs don’t go international, they’ll head this way. Otherwise, they might sell it for cash considerations.
